Monday, July 25, 2005

Shrinking Cells?

Some out there are becoming more optimisting about the War on Terror.

- The 7-July-2005 London bombers may have been unwitting mules. Bear in mind that the Kamikaze pilots at the end had their aircraft launched off of carriages which separated from the vehicle so that they had no landing gear, and did not have the option to hesitate or change their minds.

- The 21-July-2005 bombers could possibly have been suspicious of the cell handlers duping the walking bombs. The handlers were possibly just one or two people to limit the risk of exposure of the cell as well.

- The relative youth of these bombers might be a sign that law enforcement is closing in on the core cell core members or "leaders". They are likely using cult-like indoctrination techniques which are more successful on the young to bring relative outsiders to the point of being able to act out their handlers' plans. It supports that past prospective mules are dubious of them as well when the plan is to drop their satchel IEDs and run.

- The cells might have poor prospects for growth under successful infiltration. As with ETA in recent years, going after younger outsiders to use as their “fresh meat” does not require as much risk to the cell itself being infiltrated, young outsiders doesn’t attract as much attention to their activities.
Using mules doesn’t kill off the future of the cell by employing the few disconnected saboteurs that remain. If information is traveling between cells hand to hand and person to person, so are people. With “turnover” there is a greater likelihood that they don’t trust those from outside their circle as much.

- There is a chance that the pattern of events indicates that the circle is getting smaller. The cells are shrinking. The last gasp will be a play at inspiring uncoordinated dramatic attacks by individuals which are less likely to have the scale of 9-11 or the Madrid bombings. We may be seeing that disconnection and isolation going on right now.

The London bombings appear to be an attempt to blackmail the European public from completely disengaging with the rest of the world on the War on Terror. When you set aside the fear and harm caused by those bombings there are the signs of success in the War on Terror. Previous options which placed huge numbers of people at risk are closed to the Global Jihadists. Their methods, the effect of what they can do, and it’s effect on the civilized world are becoming less, not more, with every crime they attempt.

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