Monday, April 14, 2025

An Open Letter to President Macron: The 7 Stats About America That France Is Deliberately Concealing


What you delivered in your speech is a political fiction [Emmanuel Macron is told]. … You tax almost twice as much as the United States, in order to produce half as much growth on average.

Over at LinkedIn, ROF's Sébastien Laye sends an open letter to the President of France, advising Emmanuel Macron on a subject that the French-American economist examined last month in "Why Does Donald Trump Bother the Élites in France and Europe So Much?". In other Laye(d-back) news, Sébastien has been recording his first program "for @Frontieresmedia new streaming platform with @Macronomics1 and @pegobry_en @PolicySphere [regarding] Trump's trade and economic policies."

An Open Letter to Emmanuel Macron : The Seven Statistics About America That You Are Deliberately Hiding 

Sebastien Laye

Sebastien Laye

Economist, entrepreneur (AI and Financial Services), author, teacher

An Open Letter to Emmanuel Macron: The 7 Figures About the USA You're Hiding
By Sébastien Laye, Franco-American economist, economic advisor to Republicans Overseas (also intended for European leaders, entrepreneurs, and the business media, as well as world opinion) 

Monsieur le Président,

You recently declared that "Americans will be poorer and weaker than Europeans." Such a statement, coming from a graduate of the École Nationale d'Administration (ENA), in your position, should have been based on facts. But what you delivered is a political fiction.

So here is the reality: cold, quantified, strategic, and scientific facts.

1) Growth: The United States is accelerating, Europe is stagnating

  • United States (4th quarter 2024): +2.4% annual growth trend
  • Eurozone: 0.5% (Eurostat)
  • France: barely +0.5% OFCE trend, with consumption in decline

Conclusion: The American economy is growing four times faster than the Eurozone. You talk about "weakening," we talk about leadership.

2) Unemployment: Full employment against social paralysis

  • United States: 4.1%
  • Eurozone: 6.3%
  • France: 7.5%, despite the 35-hour week, subsidized employment, and bonuses

Conclusion: You call this a model? It's a machine for excluding young people and perpetuating dependency.

3) Taxes and debt: Who is truly free?

• Mandatory tax rates:

  • France: 45.4% of GDP
  • USA: 27.7%

• Public debt:

  • France: 111% of GDP
  • USA: 100%, but in dollars, the world's reserve currency

Conclusion: You tax almost twice as much as the United States, in order to produce half as much growth on average over the past few years, and put us even deeper into debt! Who is richest?

4) Innovation, energy, sovereignty: the gap is widening

• Patents filed (2024):

  • USA: 285,000
  • France: 20,000

• Energy independence:

  • USA: net energy exporter
  • France: importer, dependent on Qatar and Germany, despite our grandparents' efforts in the nuclear sector…

Conclusion: You talk about strategic power, Americans practice it.

5) Human Capital: Talents Vote with Their Feet

• University Rankings (QS World 2024):

  • 15 American universities in the top 20
  • 0 French universities in the top 20 (it pains me to admit this, as I teach at some of France's most prestigious schools)

• Startup Funding 2024:

  • USA: $300+ billion
  • France: $15 billion

Conclusion: Brains, money, dreams—they're all heading west. Nobody dreams of France's bureaucracy!

6) Pensions: The Dividend Against Dependence

  • France: Pay-as-you-go system, chronically in deficit, with a contributor-to-retiree ratio of 1.7
  • USA: Capitalization, 401(k) accounts, Roth IRAs, growing dividends over 30 years

More than 60 million Americans receive dividends. In France, we expect the state to pay.

In America, retirement is built up from the bottom rung. In France, it is a beggar's game.

Conclusion: The French system is a fiscal Ponzi scheme, fueled by fear.
The American system rewards investment, freedom, and vision.

7) And above all… currency

• Global foreign exchange reserves:

  • US: 58.4%
  • Euro: 20.6%

Conclusion: France's currency is dependent on the dollar. America's is the global standard. You criticize America… by buying its bonds.

CONCLUSION:

Monsieur Macron, if you were an investor, you wouldn't put a single euro on the French model. You are the president of a country whose elites are trained to manage what exists, not to create the future.

You speak like a graduate of the École Nationale d'Administration (ENA). Americans act like builders.

You tax effort. Americans reward risk-taking.

You talk about future poverty. Americans are building intergenerational wealth.

And if you want to check, ask your government ministers where they buy their real estate, where they educate their children, and where they invest their money.

And as President Trump would say: “America is not declining. It’s just that Europe has stopped climbing.”

“We are not weaker. We are freer, richer, and always one step ahead.”

Monsieur le Président, I invite you to meet in January 2026 to calmly compare the real 2025 figures for the USA and France, and not to discuss any particular sentiment.


En V.O. — en français :

Lettre ouverte à Emmanuel Macron : Les 7 chiffres sur les USA que vous occultez

Sebastien Laye

Sebastien Laye

Economist, entrepreneur (AI and Financial Services), author, teacher

Lettre ouverte à Emmanuel Macron : Les 7 chiffres sur les USA que vous occultez

Par Sébastien Laye, économiste franco-américain, conseiller économique Republicans Overseas

(destinée aussi aux dirigeants européens, aux entrepreneurs, aux médias économiques et à l’opinion mondiale)

Monsieur le Président,

Vous avez récemment déclaré que « les Américains seront plus pauvres et plus faibles que les Européens ». Une telle affirmation venant d’un énarque, dans votre position, aurait dû être fondée sur des faits. Mais ce que vous avez livré est une fiction politique.

Voici donc la réalité, froide, chiffrée, stratégique, scientifique.

1. Croissance : les États-Unis accélèrent, l’Europe stagne

•           États-Unis (Q4 2024) : +2,4 % de croissance tendance annuelle

•           Zone euro : 0,5 % (Eurostat)

•           France : à peine +0,5 % tendance OFCE, avec une consommation en berne

Conclusion : l’économie américaine croît quatre fois plus vite que la zone euro. Vous parlez d’affaiblissement, nous parlons de leadership.

2. Chômage : le plein emploi contre la paralysie sociale

•           États-Unis : 4,1 %

•           Zone euro : 6,3 %

•           France : 7,5 %, malgré 35 heures, emplois aidés, et primes

Conclusion : Vous appelez cela un modèle ? C’est une machine à exclure les jeunes et à entretenir la dépendance.

3. Impôts et dette : qui est vraiment libre ?

•           Taux de prélèvements obligatoires :

•           France : 45,4 % du PIB

•           USA : 27,7 %

•           Dette publique :

•           France : 111 % du PIB

•           USA : 100 %, mais en dollars, monnaie de réserve mondiale

Conclusion : Vous prélevez presque deux fois plus que les États-Unis pour produire moitié moins de croissance en moyenne sur les dernières années, et nous endetter encore plus !. Qui est le plus riche ?

4. Innovation, énergie, souveraineté : l’écart se creuse

•           Brevets déposés (2024) :

•           USA : 285 000

•           France : 20 000

•           Indépendance énergétique :

•           USA : exportateur net d’énergie

•           France : importateur, dépendant du Qatar et de l’Allemagne, malgré l’effort nucléaire de nos grands-parents ….

Conclusion : Vous parlez de puissance stratégique, nous la pratiquons.

5. Capital humain : les talents votent avec leurs pieds

•           Classement des universités (QS World 2024) :

•           15 américaines dans le top 20

•           0 française dans le top 20 (il m’en coûte de le dire, enseignant dans certaines de nos prestigieuses écoles)

•           Startup funding 2024 :

•           USA : 300+ milliards USD

•           France : 15 milliards

Conclusion : Les cerveaux, l’argent, les rêves — ils vont tous à l’ouest. Personne ne rêve de France Bureaucratie !

6. Retraites : le dividende contre la dépendance

•           France : système par répartition, en déficit chronique, avec un ratio cotisants/retraités de 1,7

•           USA : capitalisation, comptes 401(k), Roth IRA, dividendes croissants sur 30 ans

Plus de 60 millions d’Américains reçoivent des dividendes. En France, on attend que l’État paie.

Chez nous, la retraite se construit. Chez vous, elle se mendie.

Conclusion : Le système français est un schéma Ponzi fiscal, entretenu par la peur. Le système américain récompense l’investissement, la liberté, et la vision.

7. Et surtout… la monnaie

•           Réserves de change mondiales :

•           USD : 58,4 %

•           Euro : 20,6 %

Conclusion : Votre monnaie est dépendante du dollar. La nôtre, c’est l’étalon de la planète. Vous critiquez l’Amérique… en achetant ses obligations.

Conclusion :

Monsieur Macron, si vous étiez un investisseur, vous ne mettriez  pas un euro sur le modèle français. Vous êtes le président d’un pays dont les élites sont formées à gérer l’existant, pas à créer l’avenir.

Vous parlez comme un énarque. Nous agissons comme des bâtisseurs.

Vous taxez l’effort. Nous récompensons la prise de risque.

Vous parlez de pauvreté future. Nous construisons la richesse intergénérationnelle.

Et si vous voulez vérifier, demandez à vos ministres où ils achètent leurs biens immobiliers, où ils scolarisent leurs enfants, et où ils placent leur argent.

Et comme dirait le président Trump :

“America is not declining. It’s just that Europe stopped climbing.”

“We are not weaker. We are freer, richer, and always one step ahead.”

Monsieur Le Président , je vous donne rendez-vous en Janvier 2026 pour comparer froidement  les vrais chiffres 2025 USA/France, et non discuter d’un quelconque ressenti.

Posted by at 3 comments:

You Still Don't Understand Donald Trump, Says U.S. Guest to the Europeans on French TV, or Take Him Seriously

Saturday evening, ROF's Erik Svane was among the guests on BFMTV's Week-End Soir (59:38-1:23:25), where the No Pasarán blogger shared the screen with Olivier Malteste, Pierre Picquart, and Olivier Ravanello, talking about Donald Trump's tariff strategy and Beijing's muscular reaction. The ROF spokesperson was surprised by how much he was allowed to speak, with few if any interruptions, and Erik considers this one of his best appearances on French television of the past quarter century.

It seems to me that — for once — I was allowed to speak more than any of the other guests and, out of the corner of my eye, I noticed that the presenter, Anne Seften, was not listening because she was in a strong whispering argument with the producers by earphone, which I took to mean they pushing for her to intervene and shut me up.

The segment, which focused on China, was followed by a segment on American-Iranian relations, but where no American or no outright pro-Trump guest (American or foreign) was present (1:23:25-1:38:56).


BFM TV| Week-end soir

Émission du 12 avril 2025

Le vendredi, samedi et dimanche soir, Anne Seften est à la tête de Week-End Soir : un rendez-vous pour décrypter et débattre, au cœur de l’actualité.
1h39min|2025| 
Diffusée le 12 avril 2025 à 22h00 sur BFM TV
Posted by at No comments:

Sunday, April 13, 2025

The Perils of Consumerism


Having created another handful of tongue-in-cheek posters — this time, on the perils of consumerism — at Behancé, Damian Bennett writes that

It’s not just celebrities.​​​​​​​ “About 6% of Americans struggle with compulsive buying behavior.” It’s epidemic. It’s a national disorder.

■ Why We Buy Things We Don’t Need November 21, 2022 [Spoiler, it’s the dopamine.]

Much of this buying is on credit, which is debt, and cumulative debt — unless you are the government — eventually outruns credit. 

Posted by at 7 comments:

Saturday, April 12, 2025

Silicon Valley against China: the Trump administration needs to step up America's artificial general intelligence (AGI) game


“What distinguishes leaders from laggards and greatness from mediocrity is the ability to uniquely imagine what could be,” American author Robert Fritz once boldly asserted.

With artificial general intelligence on the horizon and with the U.S. edge in artificial intelligence systems dwindling by the day, ROF's Sébastien Laye explains in the Washington Examiner that the stakes are increasing for America to step up its artificial general intelligence game.

The risks for U.S. leadership are significant. As we have seen with numerous benchmarks — the Turing Test, exhibiting human intelligence equivalent behavior, was officially passed by AI once and for all last week — the Trump administration needs to get serious about the approaching AGI horizon and care about its definition. No one wants to see XYZ lab in Silicon Valley coming up with its own definition of AGI and suddenly claiming the prize.

The Chinese are leading contenders too, but I do not believe the Deep Seek/cheap models/open-source triad really matter here for AGI. These will be valuable following AGI’s arrival. And that’s where the United States finds itself in a predicament. It currently holds the most formidable, unassailable position for AI diffusion: it leads in semiconductor design, data centers, chips, commercial models and deployment. Yes, there are some weak spots, despite the smart decisions taken by the new Administration (deregulation, energy, permitting, project Stargate and the massive infrastructure effort).

As recently observed by Navin Girishankar and Matt Pearl at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, we lack a cohesive digital infrastructure when it comes to networks, grids, and communications infrastructures. Our telecommunications equipment makers are global laggards, and if the administration is so proactive for data centers and chip manufacturing, it should also take care of digital infrastructure.

 … One reason the AGI race is imbalanced is that it pits Silicon Valley against China. The Chinese Communist Party can really structure the whole pipeline of efforts, even though it also relies on a bevy of companies. Thus far, the U.S. has let Silicon Valley rule the game. The U.S. free market system believes that entrepreneurs and innovators are the ones who will eventually win the race against the authoritarian states.

WHY TRUMP’S TARIFFS ARE HARMFUL

Nevertheless, it is time for the Trump administration to go all in. Silicon Valley has no strategic experience in counterespionage, security, and military applications, albeit slowly changing with Anduril and Palantir. The federal government needs to boldly step up to structure the nationwide AGI effort. It should take the burden of security and safety from the commercial labs. The Defense Department can share crucial physical information, for example, to accelerate AI research and robotics and to allow companies to manufacture cutting-edge products for national defense.

More importantly, there are aspects of AGI that the commercial laws are not focused on. We should fund public research at the National Science Foundation laboratories, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, and the AI Safety Institute. We should also pursue moonshot projects that will complement commercial models. Only through this public-private, coordinated effort will we triumph when it comes to new powerful AI systems.

Also by Sébastien Laye: • Trumponomics — What Does It Entail, How Is It Misunderstood, and What Is Trump's Endgame?
• Why Does Donald Trump Bother the Élites in France and Europe So Much?

Posted by at No comments:

Friday, April 11, 2025

"Undocumented Worker": The Left's Preferred Expression for "Illegal Alien" Is False and Misleading


"Everybody has the right to papers!" thunders one outraged Democrat after another, as the usual Locofocos and Drama Queens castigate (allegedly) undemocratic laws demanding that illegal aliens show documentation. (Except of course, one is tempted to ask what the big deal is when, if liberals had their way, nobody actually would need papers anywhere when they show up to cast a vote in an election…)

Well — as I have been writing on this blog for the past 15 years — it so happens that every illegal alien in the United States is documented; every illegal alien in the United States does have papers.

Mexican papers.

(Well, sometimes, they have Honduran papers, or Guatemalan papers, or Venezuelan papers, or Filipino papers, or Kazakh papers, or Chinese papers, or some other papers, but let's keep using Mexico as an illustrative example…)
 
• "Undocumented Worker": The Left's Preferred Expression for "Illegal Alien" Is False and Misleading
• It So Happens That Every Illegal Alien in America Already Does Have Papers 

If a foreigner, say an American, were to head to Mexico, for however short (a vacation) or however long a period (to work there) — and whether he entered the country legally or not (!) — he still, guess what, he still has papers. He has his American papers! Offhand, he has his driver's license, various IDs, and/or his passport…
 
True, a number of the Mexican and Central American illegals, many of them paupers, may not physically have papers in their pockets to produce, as is the case with many of their respective countrymen, but still, offhand, the "undocumented" immigrants retain as many (or as few) papers, and rights, as any other citizen of their own country before they emigrated, legally or otherwise.

Everybody has the right to papers, but not everybody has the right to American papers!

What is there to be outraged about here? The equivalent is true for Americans, and for other Westerners — for instance the Yanqui Gringo mentioned above, who does not have the right (or an automatic right) to Mexican papers. Just as I, a foreigner living in Paris, do not have right — certainly, not an automatic right — to French papers and do not have the right to vote in French elections (it is not a right I would want — no offense intended — and I would never castigate the French for failing to give it to me or to any other foreigner)… 
 
Time out for French translation: Oui, ce qui est écrit ici vaut aussi pour la France et pour le reste de l'Europe : traiter les illégaux de "sans papiers" est trompeur — puisque tout le monde a effectivement des papiers. Si, si, ils ont des papiers, des papiers algériens ou sénégalais ou autres. En quoi ces migrants ont-ils un droit incontestable d'obtenir des papiers français ou suédois?! Pas plus, à moins que je ne me trompe, qu'un Français ou un Suédois arrivant en Algérie ou au Sénégal n'a un droit incontestable d'obtenir des papiers algériens ou sénégalais.

If I had the time, we could enter a discussion regarding the difference between natural rights (which every individual on Earth has) and civic rights (or citizen rights, which depend on the country you are — legally — living in, whatever part of the globe that country is located in), but I don't, so I will just suggest you read the books of Harry Jaffa…

To return to Mexico, nothing in Mexican law presupposes that our American expatriate be given, say, a job (or that he have the freedom to choose any job he wants) in Mexico or that, say, he vote in Mexican elections. Indeed, reports on Mexico's own problem with illegal aliens (Central Americans that cross over that nation's Southern border) point out to quite a few problems in that country (the one allegedly martyred by white American racists), far worse than anything in the United States, with Amnesty International calling "the abuse of migrants in Mexico a major human rights crisis".

Indeed, as JammieWearingFool puts it (gracias por el Professor Reynolds),
No wonder they're all moving to the Nazi-like, fascistic, police-state of Arizona.
Now, if any Mexicans, say the citizens of the estado de Chihuahua, want American papers, there is a simple solution: I suggest that they ask that the state be annexed by the United States. (Don't be so quick to issue a snort. I'm sure quite a few Mexicans would be more than willing to see that happen…)

Related: • Leftists fail to mention that what little illegal aliens do pay in taxes is dwarfed by what they cost the taxpayer both directly and indirectly

• Illegal immigration is to immigration what shoplifting is to shopping

• Liberals will bring in a slew of (mostly illegal) immigrants, transform them into wards of the state, and register them to vote, thus diluting the power of the Cable Guy voting bloc

• What Obama and his Democratic allies are attempting to do is to completely remake America into a government-dependent society, and importing millions of low-skilled low-educated aliens is central to that goal

• U.S. History has not been, as Obama implies, 200 years of sustained mass migration—and it certainly hasn’t been 200 years of lawless open borders, which is his actual goal

• No one talks about legal immigrants who are hard working men and women, who wait for the frustratingly slow process that seems to discriminate against those who want to do it by the book

• Questions to the Leftists: If Immigrants Are Such Paragons of Virtue, Why Not Support Sending Them Home to Their Countries to Become Productive Citizens Who Help Build Up Their Respective Nations?!

• It So Happens That Every Illegal Alien in America Already Does Have Papers

• "Undocumented Worker" — The Left's Preferred Expression for "Illegal Alien" Is False and Misleading 

• No, Liberals, there Is Not a Single "Undocumented Worker" in the United States (or on This Planet)

• Hostility towards mass immigration arises not just from fears of economic “progress”, but from various instructive experiences (such as cultural incompatibility, social disadvantage, imported crime and terrorism, and an uninvited threat to national identity)

• Sarah A. Hoyt on Being American

• Phyllis Schlafly's Rules for Addressing Amnesty

• If the U.S. were to treat Mexican nationals in the same way that Mexico treats Central American nationals, there would be humanitarian outrage

• What Obama doesn’t want is for people to draw the connection between immigration and the spreading of disease because it would be disastrous for his long term plans to change the demographics of this country
 
Our ol' chum, Damian Bennett, points out that
What is most annoying about lefty 'journos' is they are shamelessly stupid. Not incidentally stupid, not I-was-born-this-way stupid, not one-off stupid, not oopsie stupid but doggèdly deliberate doublethink donkey stupid.

There is no red-pilling them. They will go to their graves stupid.
In that perspective — that of the left's Locofocos and its Drama Queens — Damian Bennett goes on to point to a lengthy list of articles about illegal immigrants, focusing on Venezuela's ultra-violent Tren de Aragua gang members.
A leaked security briefing details the dangers of a transnational criminal cartel operating inside the USA

The thrust of the article seems plausible given the facts of the case, and DJT certainly thinks so...


...but I think the wrong culprit has been fingered. Connect the mazey dots below:

Trump tablesets...
...the 'resistance' has long readied its pan-policy response...
...and on and on and on and now bears its violent fruit...
...all this followed by the Democrats poker tell of projecting elsewhere what they themselves are about:
Why indeed. Yet:
So much more of this but enough to paint the picture of a Democrat party that is primed and prepared for, and openly prompts violence. But who to carry out the violence against the Trump administration and electorate? Not the cosplay Antifa soy boys and low-T bullies. [Pause to ponder.] 

Hhmmm, an ultra-violent criminal organization with strategically seeded beachheads across America fits the bill. 

So back to your article, it is not Venezuela invading America, that's not credible. How would two-left-hands Venezuela manage an invasion? Venezuela is only the broker for Tren de Aragua's business expansion. (I add in passing that Tren de Aragua is more organized, disciplined, operationally capable, and financially tenable than the Maduro government.) What is credible is Venezuela providing a sleeper paramilitary force that is deep-state funded on the American side, to be activated in extremis. What the deep state wants is to destroy Trump47 and his supporters not the lucrative real estate and commercial opportunities of America.

Posted by at 1 comment:

Tuesday, April 08, 2025

French TV: 7 Minutes to Understand How Europe Can Survive Donald Trump's Tariffs


Tuesday morning, ROF's Erik Svane was among the guests on BFMTV's Première édition (1:41:25-1:51:01, followed by a minute and a half of Doze d'éco), more precisely the "Le 7 minutes pour comprendre…" section, where the No Pasaran blogger shared the screen with Québec's Stéphan Bureau and Fabrique de Cookies' Alexis de Galembert in answering the question, how can Europe survive Donald Trump's tariffs…

BFM TV| Première Édition 

La matinale info du 8 avril 2025

La matinale info du 8 avril 2025 dans "Première Édition" avec Adeline François et Christophe Delay.
1h54min|2025| 
Diffusée le 8 avril 2025 à 06h00 sur BFM TV
Encore disponible 6 jours

7 MINUTES POUR COMPRENDRE - Comment l'Europe peut-elle s'en sortir ?

Alors que Donald Trump a annoncé de nouveaux droits de douane le 2 avril, les bourses mondiales continuent de s'enfoncer dans la spirale baissière amorcée en fin de semaine. Les ministres du Commerce extérieur de l'UE se réunissent ce lundi pour préparer leur réponse. …
| Durée : 8:55
Fabrique de Cookies' Alexis de Galembert & ROF's Erik Svane
Posted by at No comments:

Monday, April 07, 2025

As per Trump's wishes, the recent decline in the price of oil gives Americans purchasing power while weakening Russia and Iran

The announcement of tariffs is "a key negotiating strategy of Donald Trump's," Philippe Karsenty points out on BFMTV, before going on to add an important fact: the recent decline in the price of oil gives Americans purchasing power while weakening Russia and Iran. In the meantime, over 50 countries have contacted the Trump White House to discuss the tariffs in question.

Posted by at 3 comments:

Sunday, April 06, 2025

"Trump is trying to implement a policy to bring the industry back to the United States" Says ROF President; "If Europe wants to be competitive, it will have to re-think everything regarding its economic and industrial policy"


In the face of European criticism over Donald Trump's tariffs, Randy Yaloz was on the French TV station LCI shooting back in no uncertain terms and emphasizing that President Trump is bringing industry back to the U.S.

If Europe wants to be competitive, it will have to re-think everything regarding its economic and industrial policy.
Please go below three X posts to the bottom of this article to see the entire debate (21-22 minutes).

Posted by at No comments:

Friday, April 04, 2025

Snow White and the Seven CGI Abominations: "Disney has finally made a movie nobody is going to pirate!" Hitler Rant Parody in Berlin's Führerbunker


It was inevitable that der Führer would unleash an Adolf Hitler Rant Parody of Disney's Snow White "and the seven CGI abominations."

The first couple of minutes are far from unfunny, I suppose, but if you want to go straight to the yelling and screaming of the Hitler rant, it starts at 2:22.

Best excerpts: 

• "All those who would prefer to eat a poisonous apple than watch anymore of this [garbage], please leave" the room!!!

• "Disney has finally made a movie nobody is going to pirate!!!" 

• "Walt Disney will be rolling in his cryogenic chamber!!!"

• "The trailer is so bad, I could've used it as a weapon of mass destruction to scare the Soviet Army away and defeated STALIN!!!"

Posted by at No comments:

Thursday, April 03, 2025

Trumponomics — What Does It Entail, How Is It Misunderstood, and What Is Trump's Endgame?


If you have ever wondered about Donald Trump’s economic policies, ROF's Sébastien Laye explains Trumponomics to you at Policy Sphere: What it entails, how it is misunderstood, and what is Donald Trump's Endgame.

Donald Trump’s economic policies, often labeled “Trumponomics,” have sparked intense debate ever since his first term and remain a polarizing topic after his Liberation Day. Beyond the usual noise in the news cycle, analysts here should only refer to Arthur Laffer and Stephen Moore’s books: the seminal “Trumponomics” and the more recent “The Trump Economic Miracle”. At their core, these policies center on tariffs, tax cuts, deregulation, and a rhetoric of restoring American industrial might. Considering trade policies alone without coherent domestic measures would be nonsensical.

 To many, Trumponomics appears erratic—Critics argue it lacks coherence, while supporters see it as a bold reimagining of America’s economic role. This text seeks to clarify what Trumponomics really entails, why it confounds so many, and what Trump might ultimately aim to achieve (in my humble opinion). 

What Trumponomics Entails: A Simplified Breakdown

Most journalists (due to a poor training in basic economics) misrepresent Trumponomics. At the core, it can be distilled into three interlocking components: protectionism, fiscal stimulus, and strategic bargaining. Each reflects a departure from the neoliberal consensus that has dominated U.S. policy since the late 20th century, and achieve more than meets the eye. Tariffs, for instance, are not just new levies, but very often a negotiating tool to lower protectionism worldwide or spur neighbors to solve problems (fentanyl)

  1. Protectionism via Tariffs
    The most visible element is Trump’s use of tariffs—taxes on imported goods—to shield American industries and level the trade playing field. When the US, under the neoliberal consensus established in the 1990s, welcomed new countries in the WTO and lowered its own barriers, it gave access to its huge domestic market while most countries maintain  their barriers. Hence, neoliberal globalization spurred global growth at the detriment of US manufacturing workers. That is NOT TO SAY that the US did not profit it, but that only global US-corporations and billionaires enjoyed the ride: not so much regular people, except fr cheap consumer products. Tariffs, in our view, aim to make domestic production competitive again. Historical examples like 19th-century America, postwar Japan, and South Korea—nations that built industrial bases behind tariff walls—lend credence to this approach. Critic argue that tariffs increase prices and will reduce domestic consumption. But Trump also pursued policies to force the appreciation of our trading partners currencies, which very soon will compress the price impact on imports. 

  2. Fiscal Stimulus through Tax Cuts and Spending
    Trumponomics pairs tariffs with tax cuts, notably the 2017 reductions extended into his current term, and selective deregulation. Their broader intent is to incentivize investment in U.S. manufacturing, countering decades of offshoring. The logic is straightforward: if tariffs could make imports costlier, tax breaks act as a counter-measure here and make staying home profitable.

  3. Strategic Bargaining on the Global Stage
    Beyond economics, Trump uses tariffs as a geopolitical tool, a lever to renegotiate America’s place in the world. He sees the U.S. as overburdened by its role as provider of the global reserve currency—the dollar—which props up foreign economies while hollowing out American industry. It is time for a reset, what I would call an anti Nixon shock (more on that later). Tariffs are less about immediate trade balances and more about forcing concessions—currency adjustments, manufacturing relocation, or purchases of U.S. goods—from trading partners. This hub-and-spokes vision positions America as the central negotiator, dealing with nations individually rather than through multilateral frameworks. Trump wants one-on-one discussions.

Why Most People (including economists) Do Not Understand Trumponomics

The apparent simplicity of Trumponomics belies its complexity, leading to widespread misunderstanding. Three factors—conceptual, practical, and perceptual—explain this disconnect.

…/…

What I believe is Trump’s Endgame

What, then, is Trump aiming for? While his tactics appear disjointed, a plausible endgame emerges when we stitch together economic and geopolitical threads. Here’s what I think Trump, Hassett, Bessent, Lutnick and others have in mind (or what I would advise them to pursue).

  1. Restoring Industrial Might
    At its heart, Trump seeks to reverse America’s manufacturing decline. He believes the dollar’s hegemony, while a geopolitical asset, overvalues U.S. goods, pricing them out of global markets and flooding the country with imports. But still he is appreciative of the strategic power brought by the dollar exorbitant privilege. The trick here is to lower the value of the dollar (to spur the industrial renaissance) while maintaining, or only slightly weakening, the dollar status. We are running out of time to operate this delicate reset and we will not be able to do it in 5 or 10 years because otherwise, other powers might succeed in replacing the dollar with their currencies. 

  2. Rewriting the Global Order
    Trump’s tariffs are a means, not an end. Varoufakis in Europe suggested a two-phase “masterplan”: first, shock foreign central banks into depreciating their currencies (easing dollar pressure), then negotiate bilaterally to lock in advantages—currency swaps, manufacturing shifts to the U.S., or forced exports like weapons. …/… We need to convince the Europeans to swap their US bonds into ultra long term or perpetual bonds and lower our costs of borrowing. They should also buy our weapons and when required, maintain factories and data centers in the US (Germans, are you listening ?). In exchange, we will provide the security and safety shield we had been providing ever since WWII (without any advantage to us): it is easy to see the chess game at play here around Ukraine: despite grandiose goals, the Europeans will not be able to build their common Army. They will soon come back to Big Brother, and this time there will be a price tag but peace and serenity will be back over the European continent in 18 months. This will be a monumental deal for the US, and Putin will accept it as long as it does not extend to former USSR countries: does he really care that Italy or the Netherlands turn into US vassals. And the European Union in all this ? I forgot to tell you that its future is bleak: Von Der Leyen and Macron, in their insane pursuit of an authoritarian European superstate, will fail.

  3. Engineering a Controlled Reset
    A bolder interpretation posits Trump deliberately courts a downturn—squeezing debt-fueled excesses—before sparking a rebound via tax cuts and deregulation . Think Thatcher or Reagan: short-term pain for long-term gain. If true, this gambit aims to reset America’s economy on firmer industrial ground, even if it risks (short term) alienating voters or investors. The payoff would be a leaner, stronger U.S., less beholden to foreign creditors or Wall Street’s whims.

Trumponomics channels a historical playbook—protectionism as nation-building—while addressing real grievances: the hollowing out of America’s working class amid globalization’s unequal gains. Its tariff-centric, bargain-driven approach defies neoliberal norms, which is precisely why it baffles so many. Trump’s endgame likely blends industrial renewal with a reassertion of U.S. power, aiming to reshape both domestic and global economies.

Also by Sébastien Laye: Why Does Donald Trump Bother the Élites in France and Europe So Much?
Posted by at 1 comment:

"Trump Draws the Commercial Bazooka", Writes the French MSM: ROF's Conquer and Laye Head to TV and Radio Outlets to Defend the White House's Liberation Day Tariffs


ROF's Nicolas Conquer heads to BFMTV to defend the White House's Reciprocal Tariffs on what Donald Trump calls Liberation Day. 

The key thing to remember: these tariffs are a CEILING.  

Trading partners who lower their barriers will see these increases reversed. RECIPROCITY. 

Common sense, for true free trade.


L’essentiel à retenir : ces tarifs sont un PLAFOND. Les partenaires commerciaux qui abaissent leurs barrières verront ces hausses annulées. RÉCIPROCITÉ. Du bon sens, pour un vrai libre-échange. #Trump #LiberationDay

 

In the meantime, besides ruffling feathers on LinkedIn, ROF's Sébastien Laye was on La Matinale de Radio Courtoisie telling its listeners, as well as Liselotte Dutreuil and Alexandre de Galzain, that, regarding Donald Trump's tariffs, "The American economy will continue to grow and create jobs. It's better to do the hard things now to get results before the 2026 midterm elections." 

"L'économie américaine va continuer à croître et créer des emplois. Il vaut mieux faire les choses difficiles maintenant pour avoir des résultats en vue des élections de mi-mandat de 2026"

Sébastien Laye, entrepreneur et conseiller économique du parti américain Républicains en France. Auteur pour Contribuables Associés d’un rapport intitulé La Simplification Administrative : sortir de l'enfer bureaucratique français et Richard de Seze, directeur de la rédaction de Radio Courtoisie.
Posted by at No comments:

Why Does Donald Trump Bother the Élites in France and Europe So Much?


Besides appearing on a French radio station, Sébastien Laye ruffled feathers at LinkedIn as he tried to solve a central riddle (merci pour l'InstaLien, Sarah):

Why does Trump bother the elites in France and in Europe so much? 

As an American citizen myself, and considering that these largely outdated and bankrupt élites in France had nothing legitimate to say on the subject, I asked myself this question.  

To take France as an example, French graduates of the
École Nationale d'Administration (l'ENA) have feared Trump since his re-election: 

1. Trump is the antithesis of their mental software
ENA graduates are trained in
technocracy, norms, collective thinking, and risk avoidance. 

Trump embodies:
• Absolute individual will,
• Action without safety nets,
• Personal judgment above consensus,
• A logic of brutal disruption.  

Whether you like that or not, they fear him because they can
neither anticipate nor decode his policies. It eludes their map of power.  

2. Trump reveals their strategic impotence 

The French state, over-administered, is slow, procedural, and inflexible.  

Trump, for his part, acts like a pure capitalist actor:
• He redefines the framework (NATO, WTO, various trade agreements, etc…),
• He disregards institutions when they don't suit him,
• He confronts France with its strategic marginalization:
"What weight does Paris have in the face of a Trumpian Washington?"
His re-election underscores their dependence on an equilibrium they no longer control. 

3. Trump shatters their illusion of a multilateral world  

The ENA graduates live in the De Gaulle-Mitterrand legacy of
"enlightened multilateralism," where France plays a moral role above its real power.  

Trump, by demolishing this game (UN, COP, UNESCO, Paris Agreements, etc), exposes the fragility of their diplomatic storytelling. He desecrates French soft power—in action, without asking permission. 

4. He speaks to the people – not the elites 

The ENA graduates have rarely boots on the ground,
are often out of touch with the real people. 

Trump, despite his billionaire status, understands popular anger and speaks directly to the crowds, without filter or perspective. This profoundly destabilizes a French elite who still believe that legitimacy comes from education and abstract reasoning. 

5. Trump could impose a new grammar for transatlantic relations 

A France accustomed to a certain status quo (tacit American protection,
hushed diplomacy, symbolic place at the UN) is seeing the arrival of a Trump:
• Who haggles over everything,
• Who values ​​might over law,
• Who demands proof of strategic loyalty (as with Israel or Taiwan). 

This forces the French elite to choose: fall in line or step aside. 

In addition, ROF's Sébastien Laye was on La Matinale de Radio Courtoisie telling its listeners, as well as Liselotte Dutreuil and Alexandre de Galzain, not to mention Richard de Seze, that, regarding Donald Trump's tariffs, "The American economy will continue to grow and create jobs. It's better to take the hard decisions now to get results before the 2026 midterm elections." 

"L'économie américaine va continuer à croître et créer des emplois. Il vaut mieux faire les choses difficiles maintenant pour avoir des résultats en vue des élections de mi-mandat de 2026"

En français dans le texte — Sébastien Laye :

Pourquoi Trump dérange t il autant les élites francaises ???? Américain moi-même, et considérant que ces élites largement dépassées et en faillite en France, n'avaient rien à dire de légitime sur le sujet, je me suis posé la question.

Les énarques français craignent Trump depuis sa réélection :

1. Trump est l’antithèse de leur logiciel mental

Les énarques sont formés à la technocratie, à la norme, à la réflexion collective, à l’évitement du risque. Trump, lui, incarne :

• La volonté individuelle absolue,

• L’action sans filets,

• Le jugement personnel au-dessus du consensus,

• Une logique de disruption brutale.

Qu'on aime ou qu'on aime pas.

Ils le craignent parce qu’ils ne peuvent ni l’anticiper ni le décoder. Il échappe à leur cartographie du pouvoir.

2. Trump révèle leur impuissance stratégique

L’État français, suradministré, est lent, procédurier, peu agile.

Trump, lui, agit comme un acteur capitaliste pur :

• Il redéfinit le cadre (OTAN, OMC, accords commerciaux),

• Il méprise les institutions quand elles ne lui conviennent pas,

• Il met la France face à sa marginalité stratégique :

« Que pèse Paris face à un Washington trumpien ? »

Sa réélection souligne leur dépendance à des équilibres qu’ils ne contrôlent plus.

3. Trump fracture leur illusion d’un monde multilatéral

Les énarques vivent dans l’héritage gaullo-mitterrandien du « multilatéralisme éclairé », où la France joue un rôle moral au-dessus de sa puissance réelle.

Trump, en démolissant ce jeu (ONU, COP, Unesco, accords de Paris), expose la fragilité de leur storytelling diplomatique.

Il désacralise le soft power français – en actes, sans demander la permission.

4. Il parle au peuple – pas aux élites

Les énarques sont souvent coupés du terrain, du peuple réel.

Trump, malgré son statut de milliardaire, a compris la colère populaire et s’adresse directement aux foules, sans filtre, sans surplomb.

Cela déstabilise profondément une élite française qui pense encore que la légitimité vient du diplôme et du raisonnement abstrait.

5. Trump pourrait imposer une nouvelle grammaire des rapports transatlantiques

Une France habituée à un certain statu quo (protection américaine tacite, diplomatie feutrée, place symbolique à l’ONU) voit arriver un Trump :

• Qui marchande tout,

• Qui valorise la force sur le droit,

• Qui exige des preuves de loyauté stratégique (comme envers Israël ou Taïwan).

Cela force l’élite française à choisir : s’aligner ou s’effacer.
Also by Sébastien Laye: Trumponomics — What Does It Entail, How Is It Misunderstood, and What Is Trump's Endgame?


Sébastien Laye, entrepreneur et conseiller économique du parti américain Républicains en France. Auteur pour Contribuables Associés d’un rapport intitulé La Simplification Administrative : sortir de l'enfer bureaucratique français et Richard de Seze, directeur de la rédaction de Radio Courtoisie.

Posted by at 6 comments:

Tuesday, April 01, 2025

The Marine Le Pen Ban: Don't Courts Prove Once Again that Politicization Comes from the Left and that the Right Is Justified in Opposing Their Respective Judiciaries?

Over at X, Sébastien Laye reacts to the news regarding the Marine Le Pen ban from public office, calling upon Donald Trump to use Washington's economic weapons against his country:
The US should sanction France for anti-democratic practices since the main political opponent (once again like in 2017) has just been barred from running for the next presidential election
@elonmusk
@ChrisRuddyNMX
@Jason_Jorjani
@RealCandaceO
@DavidSacks
@chamath
@pegobry_en
@breakth3rules
@loic_rousselle
@EvaVlaar

In France, indeed, these judgments have not only targeted members of the "far right", but members of the traditional, or institutional, right as well.  As Sébastien Laye points out in the French version of his tweet, three other politicians that judges have targeted in the past eight years are favored 2017 presidential candidate François Fillon (his surprising embezzlement investigation in the middle of the 2017 presidential election allowed Emmanuel Macron to win the Élysée palace), party honcho Patrick Balkany, and former President Nicolas Sarkozy. By the oddest of coincidences, all three are members of Les Républicains, once one of two mainstay parties in the French Republic.

Demandons des sanctions internationales contre la France qui DEGAGE systématiquement via les juges toute opposition depuis F.Fillon


What is ironic, and what few in the power structure seem to notice, is that for decades they have dismissed or demonized le Front National as being brainless paranoids for denying the democratic aspect of this country central to Western Civilization (« tous pourris » — all of 'em rotten to the core). What does the judge's decision do but confirm — and not just to le Rassemblement National's members — that there was truth in what Jean-Marie Le Pen and his daughter have been saying all these years? (Merci pour l'InstaLien, Sarah…)

On a general note, in recent years, there have been a flurry of rightist governments around the planet who have picked a fight against the countries' respective supreme courts. They include nations as various as Poland, Hungary, Israel, Brazil, and, needless to say, the United States. In MSM media, both in America and abroad, the rightist governments are invariably presented as undemocratic (and indeed, dangerous and deranged) rightists going against democracy and against civilization itself, politicizing what should be a neutral position, and demonizing innocent people (judges of all stripes) who are simply doing their jobs.

As seen recently in Romania, as well as in Brasilia, it turns out that, generally speaking, the situation is exactly the opposite: the politicization came, in the past, from the left, and what the right is doing is restoring, or trying to restore, the status quo of the judicial branch as a neutral and impartial arbiter.

Related: Having said all that, Americans must still come to terms with the fact that Marine Le Pen is far from a conservative in U.S. terms ("the French Donald Trump") and with a fundamental misunderstanding — The truth about European "conservatism" that American conservatives must understand

Posted by at 7 comments:
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)