What you delivered in your speech is a political fiction [Emmanuel Macron is told]. … You tax almost twice as much as the United States, in order to produce half as much growth on average.
Over at LinkedIn, ROF's Sébastien Laye sends an open letter to the President of France, advising Emmanuel Macron on a subject that the French-American economist examined last month in "Why Does Donald Trump Bother the Élites in France and Europe So Much?". In other Laye(d-back) news, Sébastien has been recording his first program "for @Frontieresmedia new streaming platform with @Macronomics1 and @pegobry_en @PolicySphere [regarding] Trump's trade and economic policies."
An Open Letter to Emmanuel Macron : The Seven Statistics About America That You Are Deliberately Hiding
An Open Letter to Emmanuel Macron: The 7 Figures About the USA You're Hiding
By Sébastien Laye, Franco-American economist, economic advisor to Republicans Overseas (also intended for European leaders, entrepreneurs, and the business media, as well as world opinion)Monsieur le Président,
You recently declared that "Americans will be poorer and weaker than Europeans." Such a statement, coming from a graduate of the École Nationale d'Administration (ENA), in your position, should have been based on facts. But what you delivered is a political fiction.
So here is the reality: cold, quantified, strategic, and scientific facts.
1) Growth: The United States is accelerating, Europe is stagnating
- United States (4th quarter 2024): +2.4% annual growth trend
- Eurozone: 0.5% (Eurostat)
- France: barely +0.5% OFCE trend, with consumption in decline
Conclusion: The American economy is growing four times faster than the Eurozone. You talk about "weakening," we talk about leadership.
2) Unemployment: Full employment against social paralysis
- United States: 4.1%
- Eurozone: 6.3%
- France: 7.5%, despite the 35-hour week, subsidized employment, and bonuses
Conclusion: You call this a model? It's a machine for excluding young people and perpetuating dependency.
3) Taxes and debt: Who is truly free?
• Mandatory tax rates:
- France: 45.4% of GDP
- USA: 27.7%
• Public debt:
- France: 111% of GDP
- USA: 100%, but in dollars, the world's reserve currency
Conclusion: You tax almost twice as much as the United States, in order to produce half as much growth on average over the past few years, and put us even deeper into debt! Who is richest?
4) Innovation, energy, sovereignty: the gap is widening
• Patents filed (2024):
- USA: 285,000
- France: 20,000
• Energy independence:
- USA: net energy exporter
- France: importer, dependent on Qatar and Germany, despite our grandparents' efforts in the nuclear sector…
Conclusion: You talk about strategic power, Americans practice it.
5) Human Capital: Talents Vote with Their Feet
• University Rankings (QS World 2024):
- 15 American universities in the top 20
- 0 French universities in the top 20 (it pains me to admit this, as I teach at some of France's most prestigious schools)
• Startup Funding 2024:
- USA: $300+ billion
- France: $15 billion
Conclusion: Brains, money, dreams—they're all heading west. Nobody dreams of France's bureaucracy!
6) Pensions: The Dividend Against Dependence
- France: Pay-as-you-go system, chronically in deficit, with a contributor-to-retiree ratio of 1.7
- USA: Capitalization, 401(k) accounts, Roth IRAs, growing dividends over 30 years
More than 60 million Americans receive dividends. In France, we expect the state to pay.
In America, retirement is built up from the bottom rung. In France, it is a beggar's game.
Conclusion: The French system is a fiscal Ponzi scheme, fueled by fear.
The American system rewards investment, freedom, and vision.
7) And above all… currency
• Global foreign exchange reserves:
- US: 58.4%
- Euro: 20.6%
Conclusion: France's currency is dependent on the dollar. America's is the global standard. You criticize America… by buying its bonds.
CONCLUSION:
Monsieur Macron, if you were an investor, you wouldn't put a single euro on the French model. You are the president of a country whose elites are trained to manage what exists, not to create the future.
You speak like a graduate of the École Nationale d'Administration (ENA). Americans act like builders.
You tax effort. Americans reward risk-taking.
You talk about future poverty. Americans are building intergenerational wealth.
And if you want to check, ask your government ministers where they buy their real estate, where they educate their children, and where they invest their money.
And as President Trump would say: “America is not declining. It’s just that Europe has stopped climbing.”
“We are not weaker. We are freer, richer, and always one step ahead.”
Monsieur le Président, I invite you to meet in January 2026 to calmly compare the real 2025 figures for the USA and France, and not to discuss any particular sentiment.
En V.O. — en français :
Lettre ouverte à Emmanuel Macron : Les 7 chiffres sur les USA que vous occultez
Lettre ouverte à Emmanuel Macron : Les 7 chiffres sur les USA que vous occultez
Par Sébastien Laye, économiste franco-américain, conseiller économique Republicans Overseas
(destinée aussi aux dirigeants européens, aux entrepreneurs, aux médias économiques et à l’opinion mondiale)
Monsieur le Président,
Vous avez récemment déclaré que « les Américains seront plus pauvres et plus faibles que les Européens ». Une telle affirmation venant d’un énarque, dans votre position, aurait dû être fondée sur des faits. Mais ce que vous avez livré est une fiction politique.
Voici donc la réalité, froide, chiffrée, stratégique, scientifique.
1. Croissance : les États-Unis accélèrent, l’Europe stagne
• États-Unis (Q4 2024) : +2,4 % de croissance tendance annuelle
• Zone euro : 0,5 % (Eurostat)
• France : à peine +0,5 % tendance OFCE, avec une consommation en berne
Conclusion : l’économie américaine croît quatre fois plus vite que la zone euro. Vous parlez d’affaiblissement, nous parlons de leadership.
2. Chômage : le plein emploi contre la paralysie sociale
• États-Unis : 4,1 %
• Zone euro : 6,3 %
• France : 7,5 %, malgré 35 heures, emplois aidés, et primes
Conclusion : Vous appelez cela un modèle ? C’est une machine à exclure les jeunes et à entretenir la dépendance.
3. Impôts et dette : qui est vraiment libre ?
• Taux de prélèvements obligatoires :
• France : 45,4 % du PIB
• USA : 27,7 %
• Dette publique :
• France : 111 % du PIB
• USA : 100 %, mais en dollars, monnaie de réserve mondiale
Conclusion : Vous prélevez presque deux fois plus que les États-Unis pour produire moitié moins de croissance en moyenne sur les dernières années, et nous endetter encore plus !. Qui est le plus riche ?
4. Innovation, énergie, souveraineté : l’écart se creuse
• Brevets déposés (2024) :
• USA : 285 000
• France : 20 000
• Indépendance énergétique :
• USA : exportateur net d’énergie
• France : importateur, dépendant du Qatar et de l’Allemagne, malgré l’effort nucléaire de nos grands-parents ….
Conclusion : Vous parlez de puissance stratégique, nous la pratiquons.
5. Capital humain : les talents votent avec leurs pieds
• Classement des universités (QS World 2024) :
• 15 américaines dans le top 20
• 0 française dans le top 20 (il m’en coûte de le dire, enseignant dans certaines de nos prestigieuses écoles)
• Startup funding 2024 :
• USA : 300+ milliards USD
• France : 15 milliards
Conclusion : Les cerveaux, l’argent, les rêves — ils vont tous à l’ouest. Personne ne rêve de France Bureaucratie !
6. Retraites : le dividende contre la dépendance
• France : système par répartition, en déficit chronique, avec un ratio cotisants/retraités de 1,7
• USA : capitalisation, comptes 401(k), Roth IRA, dividendes croissants sur 30 ans
Plus de 60 millions d’Américains reçoivent des dividendes. En France, on attend que l’État paie.
Chez nous, la retraite se construit. Chez vous, elle se mendie.
Conclusion : Le système français est un schéma Ponzi fiscal, entretenu par la peur. Le système américain récompense l’investissement, la liberté, et la vision.
7. Et surtout… la monnaie
• Réserves de change mondiales :
• USD : 58,4 %
• Euro : 20,6 %
Conclusion : Votre monnaie est dépendante du dollar. La nôtre, c’est l’étalon de la planète. Vous critiquez l’Amérique… en achetant ses obligations.
Conclusion :
Monsieur Macron, si vous étiez un investisseur, vous ne mettriez pas un euro sur le modèle français. Vous êtes le président d’un pays dont les élites sont formées à gérer l’existant, pas à créer l’avenir.
Vous parlez comme un énarque. Nous agissons comme des bâtisseurs.
Vous taxez l’effort. Nous récompensons la prise de risque.
Vous parlez de pauvreté future. Nous construisons la richesse intergénérationnelle.
Et si vous voulez vérifier, demandez à vos ministres où ils achètent leurs biens immobiliers, où ils scolarisent leurs enfants, et où ils placent leur argent.
Et comme dirait le président Trump :
“America is not declining. It’s just that Europe stopped climbing.”
“We are not weaker. We are freer, richer, and always one step ahead.”
Monsieur Le Président , je vous donne rendez-vous en Janvier 2026 pour comparer froidement les vrais chiffres 2025 USA/France, et non discuter d’un quelconque ressenti.
3 comments:
Macron, the economist, peacocks like a nationalist. Macron, le président, remains true to le modèle social français, the French blend of classic fascism (i.e., state corporatism) and socialism-for-votes. M. Laye spatchcocks him like an expert chef.
Where I would take issue with M. Laye (points 1, 3, and 7) is that the American model is undermined by unsustainable debt -- national, state, local, personal. But all modern economies are built on the thin air of fiat money. In this scenario, MMT economist Stephanie Kelton asks the painfully awkward Q: "The US government can't go bankrupt because we can print our own money. [Like the Weimar Republic, like Zimbabwe.] It obviously begs the question, why exactly are we borrowing in a currency that we print ourselves? I'm waiting for someone to stand up and say, why do we borrow our own currency in the first place?"
The simple answer is the government once borrowed (scil., sells bonds) to finance the revenue (scil., taxes) shortfall against expenditures, which results in national debt. Today the government borrows to finance deficit spending and service the national debt. Deficit spending and debt service are only viable when there is a high probability of paying off the resulting debt. The United States government has no plan, much less a possibility, to pay down its ginormous debt. This is not to say that the American economy does not experience real growth, but denominating it in dollars is meaningless.
Where does it end? My go-to answer is Herbert Stein, American economist: "If something cannot go on forever, it will stop." And stop it will.
DGB
I think Damian covers it very well. I would add, however, that France may resolve some of the issues raised by Laye such as patents. If the EU does actually pursue military independence from the US, the necessary R&D may improve the patent comparison. However, to reach the goal of spending 3.5% of GCP on defense could mean drastic cuts in the social welfare payments. That, I suspect would be rejected by the electorate which would drive France even closer to the financial cliff. I will be interested to see what Bayrou says when he gets more specific on how he plans to reverse the current fiscal trajectory.
Great points, but I might have some questions/disagreements about #6: The US has Social Security which is arguably a Pay-as-you-go system. Large swaths of the population are/will be dependent on those payments. Although the US enjoys the mechanisms allowing capital growth and appreciation, it is mostly exercised by only a portion of the overall population...sadly. The US is not immune from socialistic thoughts and implementations.
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