As the debate ended on Wednesday night, I said: Sarkozy wins on Sunday with 53-54%.
(Unless, of course, the socialists are "lucky" enough to get a totally unexpected windfall à la Madrid bombing…)
The socialists are so imbued with their Sarkozy hatred that they failed (or Ségolène failed, at least) to see that one point of the debate (the main point, indeed) was to appear presidential, especially for the undecided voters, centrist or otherwise. Somewhere, they did realize this, as Ségo tried relentlessly to make Sarko lose his temper and appear like the brute we all know he is. But with her eyes full of contempt (they rarely seemed to leave him), she was clearly out for blood while Sarkozy was (or at last appeared) only interested in ideas and having a back-and-forth discussion, addressing the journalists as well as his adversary (and thus the French people).
Question to the French (those decided and undecided alike): Who would make a better representative for France at, say, the G-8?