Promethean Rivalry: The AI race between America and China is even more impactful than the Space Race or the Atomic rivalry at their apex

… the AI race is more impactful than the Space Race or the Atomic rivalry at their apex

asserts ROF's Sébastien Laye at the Washington Examiner.

There is no shortage of books or reports on the U.S.-China rivalry, especially as artificial intelligence portends to become a nuclear-like inescapable linchpin of this competition. We recently extensively dealt here with the geopolitical consequences of the AI race as laid bare in the “Super Intelligence Strategy” paper by Eric Schmidt and two executives from Scale AI.

This week, the Center for a New American Security published “Promethean Rivalry” by Bill Drexel. As we have ourselves repeatedly pointed out the shortsightedness of most of the geopolitical digressions on the AI race, we found this work to be groundbreaking as it strives to analyze the world-altering impact of this technological race. In a nutshell, this is not just another technology race between two superpowers. Possibly, we even see a scenario where the AI race is more impactful than the Space Race or the Atomic rivalry at their apex. 

The rationale for such a bold assertion of our own is due to the multidimensional stakes of the AI competition, weaving military, economic, geopolitical, and ethical issues. 

 … The paper analyzes four domains and the world-altering affect of the AI rivalry on the four domains: conflict norms (how military conflicts are waged and solved), state power (what is the essence of global superpower and influence in the age of the AI rivalry?), emerging bioethics (the future of medical treatments, genetic engineering, cloning, etc. in an age of acceleration) and catastrophic risks. 

In these four instances, the prospect for Sino-American collaboration is limited given China’s diplomatic intransigence, while the disconnect between necessity and feasibility is more troubling. 

When we think about possible autonomous warfare, panopticon techno states with surveillance regimes, AI-powered human genetic engineering, or AI malfunctions, we need more human collaboration, but we should not fool ourselves in the West and believe there is a responsible co-pilot with us in the cockpit.

 … Drexel is adamant that only a clear U.S. lead over China’s AI ecosystem will ensure a safe future for mankind. I have advocated a defector’s visa status, like what we did during the Cold War, for Chinese AI researchers who want to join the West to defeat their techno-authoritarian state. The U.S. needs to attract all top AI talents in the coming two years, including from low-growth Europe. I share Drexel’s concerns that direct cooperation with China on catastrophic risks, autonomous killing systems, or genetic engineering has been an illusion. We should leave the door open (it will be used in due time) without being delusional here.

 … In a time when NATO has long lost any meaning, I advocate rebuilding our global sphere of influence around a grand technological and economic alliance, leaving only rogue states to the techno-authoritarian model championed by the Chinese. With these countries, and altogether open to a dialogue with China, we could continue our efforts to establish norms on the responsible use of AI in militaries or AI in nuclear command and control.