In the dim, chilling light of winter 2009, Iranian fists or hands or fingers still look alike

With Iran so far advanced in making enriched uranium that some experts think it could produce enough for an atomic bomb sometime this year, the Obama administration and its European friends have gotten no closer to stopping the rush to a nuclear weapon that they insist is "unacceptable"

writes John Vinocur about the current direction of Middle Eastern policies which might lead to "an end to [Obama's] star turn as Mr. Multilateral"

Part of the problem is that the Iranians, gifted verbal twisters and masters of murk, are toying with Barack Obama's phrase last week about an extended American hand in exchange for their unclenched fist.

…Hah. A couple of details in passing: Iran's extended hand ([close Ahmadinejad aide Ali Akbar] Javanfekr's phrase here) involves Iranian refusal to curtail its nuclear work, a demand that the United States end its military presence around the world, proof from Obama of "diplomatic respect" and an end of American support to (the wording is Ahmadinejad's) "the rootless, uncivilized, fabricated, murdering Zionists."

There was nothing more positive coming back publicly in response to what Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said was a clear opportunity for Iran "to demonstrate some willingness to engage meaningfully."

In the dim, chilling light of winter 2009, Iranian fists or hands or fingers still look alike.

But there is an American problem here, too. According to French anti-proliferation experts, the United States has acted in a way that allows Iran to believe it has a no-fist or low-risk adversary.

…Bruno Tertrais, an analyst for the Foundation for Strategic Research [in Paris], found the American messages "confusing if not contradictory."

…Drawing on other indicators, Thérèse Delpech, the most authoritative voice among the tough-minded French nuclear weapons-control specialists, has concluded that "the notion of a United States military threat has no credibility in Iran."

So: Is there, in fact, an American fist clenched someplace behind the offers of respect, friendship and a willingness to listen?

…Looking at the overall situation, Delpech found "there's no chance - zero - that the negotiations succeed with the present Iranian power."