Monday, October 21, 2024

The Latest Puzzle Pieces for the 2024 Election Jigsaw Picture: "the Harris steal is now in earnest"!

Although they make perfect sense, forecasts like this make Damian Bennett skeptical…

While trying to assemble the latest puzzle pieces in the big 2024 election jigsaw picture, Damian Bennett cannot exactly be described as optimistic: "the Harris steal is now in earnest"!

Forget the polls. If the polls are worth anything they are lagging indicators, third down in a manifest dynamic of momentum.

Trump has it. Harris doesn't.

The election isn't won yet, but we are in the late innings and once there is a momentum shift in the homestretch it proceeds like an avalanche. It is very very hard to outrun, cannot be stopped, and near impossible to reverse. There are a lot of recent puzzle pieces; let's fit them together into a big jigsaw picture.

THE FIRST INDICATOR is the legacy media. 


KA-mala has gotten bad press lately, not 'slanted' bad, 'baseline reporting' bad. Stories are now making the news unfiltered, unfluffed, sometimes as above-the-fold headlines. KA-mala can no longer be plausibly cosmeticized. The journos can either report nothing or chronicle the fading vibes, the souring joy.
The totally insane shills will hold out to the end and beyond (as in 2016); they cannot counter KA-mala's bad press with good press -- there is none -- so they will pump up the ear-bleeding volume on Orange Man Bad. But all the end-of-democracy, Hitler tropes -- no matter how loudly shilled -- have been so overused that -- unlike the COVID vaccine -- people are immunized to the shrill of the shill. A small sampling:
THE SECOND INDICATOR is the public episodes of unease and discord and whining among Democrats and the White House and the Harris campaign. 
The Biden coup was never an all-in team play. 
A great many Ds resent notching Harris to the top of the ticket uncontested; others know what everyone knows, KA-mala is as dumb as a box of rocks.

THE THIRD INDICATOR are the polls, where try as they might -- small survey pools, oversampling Ds, plumping the MOE -- are moving in one direction in favor of Trump. Wherever Harris is still ahead, her lead has dwindled from a month ago.
To everyone who says Harris has yet to reveal herself, that she is a shrewd political animal, a Brainiac hidden under a bushel, she is not. What she has shown is all that's there. She will not improve. I pray, fervently pray, pray on my knees, that she does the rumored Joe Rogan interview, that would be a humane but irremediable end to her campaign. Though that may be unnecessary after her Bret Baier interview tonight. 

(UPDATE: I watched the entire interview. TWICE. Spontaneous combustion is real. How bad was the combustion?
And this:
Her handlers will never risk her doing a 2-3 hour Rogan interview -- not without a kaishakunin at the ready.)

Elsewhere:
SO. What does Trump homestretch momentum mean? It means the Harris steal is now in earnest. 

Watch and see if there is a sort of quiet acknowledgement by the DNC and the media that the Harris campaign is a shipwreck, that Harris is a losing proposition -- AS LONG AS THEY CAN KEEP HER WITHIN 3 POINTS. That is the outermost margin for the steal. Almost all the polls are working on a 3pt+ MOE. So just as in 2020, we go to bed with Trump triumphant, and wake up to a squeaker where Harris ekes out the win.

In addition, Damian Bennett predicts a November surprise (stay tuned!) 

The betting markets are better predictors than the polls for trends. Among the different betting services there is rarely a big divide on how a race is trending, unlike the wild swings among the polls. If memory serves, DJT was up in the betting markets in 2020. But lost. Lost because robbed. Lost because of the steal. No one thought to bet the steal.

What I like about October is poll tidy-up. Whereas through September polls have their thick meaty thumbs on the scale for particular candidates, trying to create momentum where none exists, trying to shore up undynamic candidates, trying to sink unpreferred candidates, trying to clinch for preferred candidates... 
...BUT come October everybody needs to get in line with reality or risk reputation and cred. In 2016 they got in the wrong line. In 2020 they broke for Trump in the homestretch, only to be busted by the steal. Now we're seeing those 2-3 MOE polling points shifting to DJT, but not so fast on the 5-7% lead he actually has. Time will tell. Certainly time will tell November 5.
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