To know for sure, you will know when things are turning in Teheran when they turn in Isfahan and the like, especially with the police paramilitaries, and perhaps even the Revolutionary Guard or their official plain-clothed pinkertons decide to not turn on the demonstrators. More so if units join the demonstrators.
That aside, in the great land of passive-aggression (western Europe) there's another series of indicators. You will know that they are well and truly behind the removal of the pathetic mullocracy when they start to tell themselves that "America created Ahmedinejad."
Not that they would ever do anything about the situation other than their governments discussing trade sanctions only to reject them 5 weeks later in favor of peddling WMD precursers, and other humanitarian "necessities".
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