Wednesday, January 28, 2009

France's convoluted internal political debate on NATO

… the French message can be confusing, especially at the point where its convoluted internal political debate on NATO, weighted with factionalism worthy of Italy's 12th century Guelphs and Ghibellines, runs into the reality of just what France wants in terms of a European NATO pillar
writes John Vinocur in his article about "a country that for close to a half-century maintained a gap between itself and NATO for its own advantage."
Bruno Le Maire, the new French minister for Europe, speaking last week at a symposium in Paris on relations with the Obama administration, said three things that were not readily understood by all of France's allies.

First, that Europe had to have "our own doctrine on Iran"; that NATO must be redefined in April "so that we know what organization we're entering"; and that a Europeans-only military operational headquarters in Brussels "had been agreed to in principle."

What?

The puzzlement is that NATO has been redefining itself for a decade, that the operational center has little future in any realistic time frame, and that a "European doctrine" on the Iranian threat — not exactly a unifying notion since Le Maire himself said intra-European agreement on security issues was "unbelievably difficult" — sounds plain baffling.

For a U.S. official, Sarkozy's real task before giving the final go-ahead is to resolve the internal French debate and make sure his base is with him. The official said, "You want it all lined up in advance."

Beyond their internal debate, the fact is also that very little has been done by the French (while reducing their defense budget and cutting back their military presence in Africa) to support the American expectation that they would be a leader in steering the rest of Europe toward greater investment in defense.

This too: Sarkozy's perceived haste in resuming the EU's "strategic partnership" talks with Russia after it invaded Georgia — coupled with his placing more blame on Ukraine than the Kremlin during their gas supply dispute — hardly advanced France's self-portrayal as a more consensual future leader for all NATO's members, particularly those from the old Soviet bloc.

Gibing at Europe's "most important politicians" last week, Poland's conservative president, Lech Kaczynski, said their failure to stand behind the Ukrainians "proved once more that a country that gets drawn into a dispute with Russia cannot count on any effective help."
Update: Denmark's Uffe Ellemann-Jensen refers to the paper tigers of Europe while calling the EU's policy towards Russia "the Three Monkeys" policy:
See no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil, and you won't be touched by the evil … the three monkeys is a precise picture of many big European countries towards Russia.

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