It is a blow to the EU because it means that both France and Germany -- its strongest members -- are now at risk of paralysis. Defeat in the constitutional vote stripped Jacques Chirac of credibility in Europe. Now Germany's voice will be muffled too. It is unclear who will be its next chancellor, which parties will form its new government and how stable it will be; but in any case, a weakened, introvert Germany seems even less likely than before to lead the EU forward. In a club of 25, of course, France and Germany cannot stitch up European policy as they used to. But it is still unusual, and worrying, when both seize up at once. Both are likely to grow more defensive, whether separately or in tandem. The EU will feel the creeping malaise.
Things could get worse. Over the next two years, the other two big economic powers in the euro area will also hold elections. Next up is Italy, where the leader of the movement challenging Silvio Berlusconi is a former EU commission president. This will tempt the prime minister to run as a Eurosceptic. If he were to win, the lesson from Germany and Italy would be that the key to electoral success in Europe lies either in stressing the need to "balance" reform (as Mr Schröder did) or in bashing the EU. That does not automatically mean the French, who vote for a president in 2007, will go down the same road. But their election campaign may well be fought on familiar (pro- or anti-reform) turf; after all, the referendum in France was dominated by talk of globalisation, economic stagnation and the "Anglo-Saxon" attitudes of the European Commission. Railing against the beasts from Brussels who are ruining our welfare states is becoming standard fare in election campaigns. In country after country, debate about reform is fractious; opposition to it is well galvanised.
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